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Gold is continuing to ride liquidity wave (unless you are in
house flips, subprimes, or Watts condominiums you are already screwed). Gold
looks as if it wants to have a fifth wave, ending this fairly lengthy wave 4
correction.
For awhile i have stated that gold was in
no-man's land between $630 and $670, and a break lower would be bearish and
a break higher would be bullish (see last Da Bear Report). Gold broke above
$670 and looks to attack $700 and beyond.
Oil should stay under control here, and stocks
refuse to collapse (last suckers rally), which should give gold room to run.
I put a $750 target on the price of gold
because i think it is breaking out of its correction, and would lend a price
just higher than last year's high of $730. It is also a 79% retracement of
the old $880 all-time high to its low around $270.
If gold goes higher than $750, which it could
other targets are $800 and $900. An $800 high would put it nearly 38% above
the 1987 high and would be another great indication of an '87 style stock
crash. A big stock crash later on, which i am predicting, would take gold
and gold stocks down with it, as it did in 1987 and 1929.
Currently my maximum upside target for gold is
$900 which is about 3% higher than its old all-time high. Incidentally, the
last great sucker rally in stocks took the Dow to 1,031 in the seventies,
about 3% higher than the previous record of 1,000 before it broke down. Then
gold could drop 50% like its last cyclical bear within a larger bull market
in the seventies. That would then take the price of gold to $450. The $450
area represents the last real base in the gold price.
- da bear
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