This is Da Cember. This is Da Bear. This is
Da Report. Any questions?
On Wednesday of this week I spotted a Paris
Hilton Day (everything totally flat). Today stocks went higher. The Dow
was up 38, the Nasdaq up 39 and the S*** and Pee was up 7.
Currently on kitco.com gold is up $1.10 to
$799.60 an ounce. Gold continues to trade around the $800 an ounce
level. it still looks as if gold is trying to top, after that huge run a
couple of months ago from about $680 to $846 an ounce. then gold came
down. but gold is still hanging in around $800. so at this time $800
seems to be an important price...
there is no reason to suggest that the top
hasn't already formed and that the yellow metal is due for a decline,
thus following the global credit crunch. but the decline should be no
more than a short-term event. and sooner or later gold will head to
$1,000 an ounce and beyond. But more on that later...
Silver, the Dan Quayle of metals, the
Gilligan to gold's Skipper, is currently at $14.20 an ounce. it seems to
have followed gold's price action. and is doing so again, at the present
time. Richiedoc has pointed out (with charts to back it up) that show
that gold leads prices up, silver lags then explodes upwards to match
gold's gains. but at this point silver looks to be the third best play
behind cash and gold. silver has more upside than the other two assets
but also more downside.
Either way let's schedule a coin store run
next Monday, the night before Christmas to buy some coins, after we have
taken a good amount of cash out of the banks. hey, it is our own little
gift to ourselves. and we have earned it. Very Happy
The dollar index is currently down 13 cents
on the dollar to 77.64. so it is trying to build off its last lows. ...
and with the current global financial cooling picking up steam, the
dollar could rally higher and stronger. It seems as though it wouldn't
be market justice if some of the greediest of greedy hedge funds and
mortgage bankers weren't squeezed just a little in the last great dollar
short-squeeze of our lifetime.
I see no reason why the dollar index cannot
approach the 80 level. it seems to be headed that way. and if it hits
and surpasses that, which I believe it will then the 80 level will have
stopped being a ceiling and will magically transform into a floor. And
that would be one strong, long floor. The 80 level would mark years of
support, and the dollar should be able to hold that for a while--well at
least until Hyperventilating Hyperinflating Hillaryious Hitlery Rodham
Delano Clinton gets into office. So perhaps the dollar could just be the
play of 2008 and not a longer term play, lest your favorite investment
falls through the floor, crashes through the ceiling hundreds of times
over into a grand reenactment of Tower number 2.
So there you have it. My Axis of Assets.
Cash, gold, silver. in that order. sometimes they change order. sometimes it
is gold, silver and cash. or silver gold cash. or even, i think you
should sit down for this, silver, cash, gold. I would call that my Ted
Butler portfolio. Very Happy
Hmmm. I like that term. Axis of Assets. It
has a nice ring to it. I think i will coin that term. but the only
question is, should it be a silver coin or a gold coin. Laughing
Laughing Laughing Laughing
(i can judge exactly how many gold bugs
there are in the world by the exact number of people who laughed at that
joke. because that joke was horribly mediocre.)
Those are my three assets to own. cash,
gold, silver. the once, future, and past king. and cash is king. but
sometimes gold is king, other times it is silver. and for some strange
reason dollars get to be king every now and then...
Every other thing out there is what i
consider to be a TRADE. either short or long term. but it is a trade.
you cant sit and hold it b/c it will go down. in this category i put
swamp land in florida, condotels in Las Vegas, strip centers in Fallujah
(especially strip centers in Fallujah), global stocks, REITS, mortgage
bonds, and exotic options on local car dealerships. Those are all
TRADES.
US STOCKS: THE BEAR MARKET FOR THE NEXT
HUNDRED YEARS.
stocks haven't outperformed gold in awhile.
in terms of gold the DJIA peaked in 1998 or 1999. and secular stock
bears last a while. and we are in one. the last one lasted 16 years from
1966 to 1982. zero nominal gain over that period. and stocks lost nearly
half their value in real terms...
Stocks are a TRADE. even whole markets of
stocks. Don't believe me? Ask Japan. The Japanese Depression (or
long-term bear market) is just about to turn 18 years old. nikkei peaked
the last day of 1989. started going down immediately in January 1990. so
yes it is almost 18.
stay tuned for my Happy Birthday Japanese
Depression Report! coming soon to a Benihana near you!
Obama Stuff.
Quota Boy Quote of the Day: "There is not a
liberal America and a conservative America - there is the United States
of America. There is not a black America and a white America and latino
America and asian America - there's the United States of America." --
OBAMA.
i say "If elected next November there will
only be Obamerica!"
Oprah has joined forces with Obama.
Oprabama coming soon. i so can't wait.
Who is gonna be Obama's running mate? Here
are some good candidates:
1. A.C. Cowlings 2. DJ Jazzy Jeff 3. Any of the lesser Wayan's brothers
4. Scottie Pippen 5. Tito or Jermaine Jackson
Gold is still topping. i believe gold needs
to do something quick, probably by the middle of january or else it is
down down down for gold.
silver will follow, but stronger on the
upside weaker on the downside.
I will now start the $911 Gold Truth
Commission. pointing out the truth that gold has not yet hit $911 an
ounce. some say that i am making it up, that there is no f-ing way that
gold has not hit $911 an ounce with all the inflation out there and with
talks of hyperinflation going on. surely it is at least $911 an ounce!
but no i say. then they say i am paranoid. that i am a "conspiracy
theorist." a handful of Arab traders with access to Bloomberg machines
and fat fingers to spare did in fact put in BUY BUY BUY orders on gold
at $911 an ounce. and so gold hit $911 an ounce, but shadowy financiers
actively knocking down gold, illegal trading and what-nots... Yellow
Meddle? so they say... and they say i am a liar, a conspiracy theorist,
a raving lunatic...
Hillary Dillary Dock The Bitch is on the Clock She Better Fucking Win Since She Can't Run Again Hillary Dillary Dock
John Edwards: he can win in the south. if
he doesnt he will sue.
price of gold to John Boy's haircut price
ratio is now 2 to 1. either gold is underpriced or Edwards is
overpriced. it is as if the tee vee writers strike is on, so Opie won't
show up to work, and Johnnie Edwards is stumping in mayberry.
mike huckabee was my surprise sleeper
candidate pick a while back, then i forgot to write about him again. but
he is picking up the pace. and he said merry christmas--which you have
to like.
... they tell me "hey da bear why do you
say the first thing that pops into your mind?" and i said "hey guys i
usually don't. this stuff is edited."
jobs of the future to get: door to door
salesman--at least until they outsource that.
if Rudie Julie Annie wins, sell terrorism
insurance.
farming. farming should be a good job in
the future. you grow your own stuff. and you can eat it.
or sell fake Real ID's. that could be a
huge market. plus a great spoof of an Orwellian police state.
American History teacher. it's where the
future is.
Hillary wants to take us back to the
nineties. i say, hey just go to China. it is the nineties in china. and
everything is great.
campaign slogan: "dont stop thinking about
yesterday???"
someone once said, "the future aint what it
used to be."
and that is true.
Global financial markets: it's whats for
dinner.
Meet the new year. Same as the old year.
The New England patriots are rolling. they
should win their next game. we still have football. the NFL playoffs
should be fun. the Patriots are great, the Colts are good. In the NFC
the Dallas Cowboys are doing well, and Brett Favre and the Packers are
right there. Can the Patriots go undefeated?
the Fuck China Update: Fuck China.
whaddya think of our trade deficit with
China. weeelll, i think it's big enough to take care of itself.
China: It's what America would be if
America were completely made in China using child slave labor.
what i want for christmas: NWO Gun, or NWO
Taser. either one.
Ron Paul rehashed quip of the day. "Ron
Paul's dirty little secret is that he reads the Constitution for the
Articles!"
Magic Johnson and bILL CLINTON ON CAMPAIGN
TRAIL WITH HILLARY. teaching hillary how to pick up chicks.
obama rehashed funny but embarrassing
potential scenario of the day. Obama involved in shooting while driving
in downtown dallas. Obama shoots four!"
business end of a drive by shooting thy
name is Obamerica.
African/American/Irish candidate barrack
O'bama drinks with teddy kennedy. promises boston that the celtics will
win the nba championship.
what is the implod-o-meter at? It currently
stands at 207. thanks for asking.
K cycle winter is raging. armstrong interm
low in march. bigger low in a few years. larry delano kudlow wants more
bailouts.
2007: Where are they Now?
a recap of 2007:
recession, bust, credit crunch, war. Can't
wait for 2008?
Here is what I wrote last January (2007) in
my January Report:
"I hope everyone had a merry Christmas.
Retailers at the highest of the high end did very well. Retailers below
the highest level didn't do as well. For most "not as good as last year"
was a common refrain. They also said that last year. Apparently they
aren't making any more rich people. Silver, the poor man's gold clocked
in the best returns of the year. It even outperformed gold. Since they
aren't making any more rich people, and they aren't making any more
silver, the outlook for silver long-term looks bright and shiny."
-- so it is deja vu all over again. at
least for those on the bottom rungs. but retailers at the top didn't do
that great either. so it was deja vu but worse.
also from the January Report:
"it should be a huge crash when it comes,
but it could be drawn out. paying off debt should be the next mania...
as befits a Kondratieff winter.
those who think the deflation ended
apparently dont realize that debt was extended and not paid off. so you
could categorize the rebound until now as a false spring.
most people don't have real cash. neither
do they have real gold or silver. in deflation gold is at worst the second
best investment. but this time it could be number one. keep an eye on
the dollar. if it goes a lot lower, then gold should be the number one
investment.
worldwide, stocks, housing, and economies
will all fall together. within roughly the same time period. physical
cash with some physical gold and silver will be the best investments,
because few will have them.
Bear market psychology will take over and
the urge to get out of debt, pay down debt, sell assets, and cut back on
spending will emerge."
.... well, we are more or less there now.
but it will intensify even more.
The first big thread i put on the board was
the Total Global Economic Collapse thread. it predicted the event to be
by February 1, 2007. well, it didnt exactly happen then but the ball did
start rolling down the hill at about that time. Global stock markets got
killed in February, and housing has never recovered after its peak in
2005-2006. and people are hoarding cash, not spending any more dough...
here are more excerpts from past Rants and
Reports:
"My book entitled "Da Bear's Guide to
Making Money in Real Estate" will be out soon. Sneak peak: Chapter One:
Don't buy real estate. Wait. Don't buy. Continue to wait. Wash, rinse
repeat. Well, that's all i have so far!"--February Report.
"The past few weeks has been all about
March Madness and the Final Four. You know what that means for all you
Realtors out there? Yep, millions and millions of potential house
hunters out there staying at their own houses watching college
basketball! The action is great and bringing the neighbors over is even
better! Wouldn't want to go out and get new neighbors.
So real estate is the first of Da Bear's
Final Four along with Markets, the Economy and Politics. However, this
being the March Madness that it is, there is no Cinderella and Real
Estate is out on its ass. Foreclosures are picking up, sales are down,
and subprime mortgage lenders are failing.
When analyzing a situation you always take
a look at volume. And looking at volume on real estate sights tells me
that housing is OVER! You can't keep track of the number of threads on
thehousingbubbleblog.com and patrick.net. Meanwhile, richddad.com has no
such level of posting activity. On one of the board's someone posted a
comment from a failed real estate ower that "real estate is a bad
investment if you don't have any money." I couldn't have said it better
myself.
Coming soon to a neighborhood near you... I
have no idea (what am i a fortune teller? lol). But if i were to hazard
a guess i would say more For Sale signs. And they aren't making any more
For Sale signs, but they should! An insider told me that Banktors are
putting out a new advertising campaign about "We have millions and
millions and millions of properties, the widest selection on the planet,
so ask a Banktor today about how to put Banktor's kids through college
and give them the American dream like their banker-grandpas used to
have." -- April Report.
"Ron Paul did well in debate. the candidate
they don't want you to know about is getting coverage.
ron paul's dirty little secret: he reads
the Constitution for the Articles!
Mr. 9/11 (Rudie Julie Annie) was Mr. 9/11.
some say we are the world's policeman, others say we are a police state,
but if you elect Senator 9/11 he will be the world's police statesman.
BOOM!
Hillary. buy these chinese stocks NOW--in
two or three years-- and get rich! Only in America!!!"
John McCain is old, and a sell out. BOOM!
and he is losing. double da bear BOOM!-ya. John Edwards who is running
hard and nonstop for President, with little sleep i assume, trying
frantically to raise money, keep his hair combed and pimp himself out on
national television with his wife at his side has informed us that his
wife's cancer has returned. Hmm, maybe he should sue himself.
The media wants Hillary vs. Rudy in a
showdown. Rudy looks good in a dress, Hillary doesn't. Point for Rudy.
Even money on which of those two Yankees would win the swim suit
competition. They both sat back as Americans were attacked on 9-11.
Point for both. Both were too busy rehearsing their speeches and polling
people to do anything good for people right away. Point for both. Rudy
was in WTC #7 in the control room, Hillary was probably somewhere else.
Point for Rudy. Hillary was great Hitler mustache. Rudy's boyfriend has
a great Hitler mustache. Point for both. If you want "kinder, gentler
fascism" vote for Hitlery Delano Rodham Clinton. But if you want someone
whose unofficial campaign slogan is "Hitler was a Pussy" vote for Rudy
'the Bronx Bomber' Guiliani.
Ron Paul is running for Prez also. He is a
great American, but he is not exactly getting a lot of press coverage.
Dr. Paul is the Presidential Candidate "They" Don't Want You to Know
About. But he is at 3% in the polls. He is my Cinderella pick for next
year's March Madness." -- May Report.
"But seriously folks Global Warming is no
laughing matter, except when it turns out wrong. Then it's hilarious.
(cue laugh track emoticon)
Laughing Either March or April was one of the
coldest March or Aprils on record. Plus, numerous baseball games were
snowed out, as were Capitol Hill hearings on climate change. (cue laugh
track emoticon)
Laughing
So if I called the Peak of Global Warming
right I can coast on that call for a good one thousand years. Even so,
June will be here in a few days and that means summer is on its way. I
will call summer a Global Cooling B wave. As long as this B wave accords
to Elliott Wave rules, high temperatures should go no higher than 1.382
times the old highs which would be approx. 138.2 degrees Fahrenheit.
If freedom is outlawed, outlaws will be
able to corner the market. If shortages are outlawed, would we still
have a shortage of outlaws?" --June Report.
"Gold is still holding above $650, and is
approaching the $666 level. and you had any doubts that the gold price
manipulators weren't Satanic? as i have stated before, if gold stays
above $650 it is gold for the yellow metal. if not, it is bad. I still
see the possibility of a fifth wave for gold from here, following its
long sideways correction. silver would probaby just do whatever gold
does." -- June Rant.
... and more flashbacks well be forthcoming
in my December Rant. so look out for that.
And in January we do predictions. anyone
have predictions?
