DA BEAR REPORT
If the stock bull market were alive today,
it would be rolling over on its charts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Averages peaked in
October at 14,300 and have been on a slow-motion crash ever since. I
don't know if the first fall wave down from that level to the
mid-12,000's fit the definition of my prediction for a fall crash, but
it might have gotten the ball rolling. After several bad weaks to start
the year off to a, uh, weak start the Dow is just barely above 12,000,
and the secular bear market is back in force. It is no longer
hibernating. If the secular bear market were alive today, it would be to
the surprise of no one. IT IS BACK. AND IT IS IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE.
The other day on CNN (Corporate-Con News
Network) someone asked Jim Cramer about da markets. And Mr. Cramer said
we are in a bear market.
I did a poll two weeks ago asking the
question, "is this year over yet?" ... and apparently it is not.
BREAKING NEWS: The year is not over yet.
Heck, this month isn't even over yet. It barely even started. Unless
you're Wal-Street. In that case IT'S OVER!!!
There was no trading today in honor of
Martin Luther King Jr. But there was trading in Asia. Some markets in
Asia down over 5%. The Nikkei is getting hammered and is now down over
20% from its recent highs. Highs, which I might add, are merely sucker
rally B wave highs off its 1989 mega bull market orthodox high. then it
had a long-term decline, retraced half of its value and is now going
down again. Apparently the Nikkei is the gold of stock markets. Gold
peaked in 1980, had a long long decline, bottomed then rallied up past
its nominal highs and is now going back down apparently.
Japan is in a C wave decline now. As is
gold. but both markets should have shallower declines, as they underwent
most of the damage in the A wave declines that took many years. so this
C wave should retrace only a portion of its rally over the past few
years in both markets. oddly enough, the Nikkei bottomed and gold hit
its last lows around the same time--earlier this decade, just as the
DJIA and other US stocks hit their A wave decline bottoms. but US stocks
went down less, and this current C wave decline should take them down
farther.
China and other Asian markets should
follow. and it remains to be seen if they go down hard on the first wave
down, like gold, or stay high like the US stocks. i would think that
they may imitate the 1929 Dow and go down big fast, but they should
rally harder (the are more of a long-term true bull than US stocks) and
offer more long-term appreciation potential.
Japan, though, would probably be the best
buy after the lows, possibly buy 2012 or 2014 but probably not before
2010, since it is further along in its deflationary Kondratieff Winter
than either America or China. Japan is 10 years ahead of us. and we are
ahead of China. Japan peaked in 1990. Ten years later America peaked.
Japan spent the entire nineties deflating and since then has been spotty
in terms of economic growth. If the ten year delay works, then if the
Nikkei bottomed in 2002, then it could be said that the DJIA could very
well bottom in 2012. As it is, 2012 looks to be the best year for a
bottom for US stocks. China and India could also be at major lows then
as well. Gold could reach a good buying opportunity then too, but it
will not be as heavily discounted as major stocks will be. Although, it
is more likely that silver declines more heavily into the next major
asset market bottom. Silver is more of an industrial metal, and economic
bell weather, than gold.
Japan Bear now old enough to buy cigarettes
and go to big boy jail. also old enough to vote and get sent to Iraq or
somewhere. also old enough to see R rated movies without a guardian. and
X movies as well.
By 2012 Japan Bear will be old enough to
drink and perhaps even rent a car. And between now (2008) and then
(2012) Japan Bear will go through a quarter-life crisis, switch majors
in college, join a frat, flirt with Marxist ideals, smoke a lot of pot,
and pretend to study. Japan Bear will also consider applying to grad
school...
Until that time though an Axis of Assets
will be the way to go. Cash along with gold and silver.
plus a mattress to store the Axis of Assets
under. but you can't have three assets on an axis. Perhaps you can have
the Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse.
... that sounds like something Mogambo
would say. but he didn't. because I said it first.
I can hear the sales pitch now: BUY THE
AXIS OF ASSETS TODAY! --cash, gold, and silver AND RECEIVE YOUR VERY OWN
MATTRESS CARRYING CASE TO COMPLETE THE FOUR HORSEMEN OF THE ECONOMIC
APOCALYPSE!!!
Operators (in India) are standing by...
Here is a link to mattresses you can buy on
ebay:
http://search.ebay.com/search/search.dll?from=R40&_trksid=m37&satitle=mattresses&category0=
And here is the Sealy Matress company
writeup on wikipedia:
________________________________________________________
Sealy Corporation
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Sealy Mattress Company)
Jump to: navigation, search
Sealy Corporation (NYSE: ZZ) is a major
mattress manufacturer. The company draws its name from the city where it
started, Sealy, Texas.
Contents
[hide]
* 1 History
* 2 Overseas markets
* 3 Sources
* 4 References
[edit] History
In 1881, cotton gin builder Daniel Haynes
began making cotton-filled mattresses for his friends and neighbors. In
1889, he patented an invention that compressed cotton for use in his
mattresses. Eventually the mattresses became so popular he was able to
sell the patents to manufactures in other markets. The term "Mattress
from Sealy" was coined to describe what was produced.
After much success as an advertising
executive, Earl Edwards, purchased the patents and gained manufacturing
knowledge from Haynes. Edwards took the name "Sealy" for his new company
and expanded it to a national market.
Due to lack of funding for manufacturing,
Sealy expanded using a licensing-expansion similar to Coca-Cola. By
1920, Sealy had 28 licensed plants and became the first mattress company
to expand using a licensing program.
During the Great Depression the mattress
industry was hit hard. Sealy lost most of its licensees and narrowly
escaped bankruptcy itself. During this time Sealy consolidated with the
surviving licensees and created what is now know as "Sealy,
Incorporated"
Sealy was made private in April of 1989 by
a leveraged buyout. First Boston made a bridge loan to the buy-out firm
just as Drexel Burnham Lambert was running into trouble and the junk
bond market was drying up, and was stuck with the loan; this led to a
dramatic slow-down in leveraged buy-outs.[1]
Bain Capital and a team of Sealy's senior
executives acquired the company in 1997. The Company has operated as a
privately held corporation until 2006.
Sealy's corporate headquarters are located
in Trinity, NC. According the Sealy's website, they are the largest
manufacturer of mattresses in the world. Sealy sells the majority of its
mattresses under its 3 main brands; Sealy Posturepedic, Stearns &
Foster, and Bassett. Sealy background information
[edit] Overseas markets
There are licensees operating in Australia,
Bahamas, Israel, Jamaica, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa, Thailand and
the United Kingdom.
In 1995, direct export business began to
South Korea.
In 1996, Sealy began manufacturing and
selling in Mexico.
[edit] Sources
* Sealy background information
Major North American mattress manufacturers
Comfortaire - Dorel - King Koil - Restonic
- Sealy - Select Comfort - Serta - Simmons - Spring Air - Tempur-Pedic -
Therm-a-Rest - Leggett & Platt
[edit] References
1. ^ "Private Money", March 5, 2007 Fortune
Manufacturing company This U.S.
manufacturing company-related article is a stub. You can help Wikipedia
by expanding it.
__________________________________________________________
POLICE STATE UPDATE
KKD stands for Krispy Kreme Donuts. Cops
stands for donuts. Any questions?
KKD is now trading at $2.32 a share. which
is bad.
chart of KKD:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=kkd&sid=0&o_symb=kkd&x=0&y=0
with $2.32 you can buy a share of Krispy
Kreme or you can buy half a dozen donuts or so. it's your choice.
I will throw this out for you though.
assuming KKD doesn't go bottoms up, the low in KKD should be the price
of one glazed donut. it is called donut purchase price parity. so when
the price of KKD stock equals the price of one glazed donut buy KKD
stock. in the meantime buy donuts. because Marie Antionette said to let
them eat cake, but i say let them eat cake with hot gooey glaze
--DONUTS!
TASER, another police state stock play is
also going down. it is at $9.65 right now. bear markets are even bad for
police state stock plays. who would have thunk it?
TASER Shocking Chart of the Day:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=tasr&sid=0&o_symb=tasr&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0
WAR ON WARM UPDATE
The War on Warm is over. And Warm lost. it
is cold outside. which is expected given that it is winter. but it is
really cold outside. which is expected given that global cooling has
begun, and the Global Warming B wave sucker's rally is over. I have been
calling for a resumption of global cooling since last year. and people
shrugged. but they are now shivering. perhaps they are shrugging and
shivering and walking and chewing gum at the same time, but they are
indeed shivering. Because it's cold outside. Real cold.
Why did i think global warming was in its
last waves up? well, Al Gore had his movie and Al Gore is great at
calling tops. Hell, he ran for President in 2000. and if that was not a
top then my name is SF3006. And last year he received the Nobel Prize
ostensibly for calling tops...
... in his movie he said that record highs
in temps were reached in several consecutive years (signs of a top) and
that this year (the year he did his movie) was nearly as warm and the
second highest temp (signs of a reversal).
Just yesterday, 60 Minutes had a rerun of a
show they did about global warming. they went to the North Pole. and the
ice was melting (it was summer. duh ice melts in summer). and that was a
rerun so i guess that if they had new footage with new socialist
programming then they would have shown that. but they didn't. and on the
other channel was the NFC championship between the Packers and the NY
Giants in Green Bay wisconsin. and it was cold. real cold. the temp was
negative 2 degrees Fahrenheit with a windchill factor of minus 23. you
could see people breathe on the sidelines and on the field. The Giants
coach had really bad windburn. It was the second coldest home game ever
for Green Bay. And to paraphrase Earnest Hemingway, and the Packers
lost. In the frozen rain.
So hell froze over. So has credit. If
Nikoli Kondratieff were alive today he would probably need to wear
several layers of clothing and turn on the heat.
Article from Mainstream News Outlets about
Cold Weather:
____________________________________________________________
THIS STORY HAS BEEN FORMATTED FOR EASY
PRINTING
The Boston Globe
JEFF JACOBY
Br-r-r! Where did global warming go?
By Jeff Jacoby, Globe Columnist | January
6, 2008
THE STARK headline appeared just over a
year ago. "2007 to be 'warmest on record,' " BBC News reported on Jan.
4, 2007. Citing experts in the British government's Meteorological
Office, the story announced that "the world is likely to experience the
warmest year on record in 2007," surpassing the all-time high reached in
1998.
But a funny thing happened on the way to
the planetary hot flash: Much of the planet grew bitterly cold.
In South America, for example, the start of
winter last year was one of the coldest ever observed. According to
Eugenio Hackbart, chief meteorologist of the MetSul Weather Center in
Brazil, "a brutal cold wave brought record low temperatures, widespread
frost, snow, and major energy disruption." In Buenos Aires, it snowed
for the first time in 89 years, while in Peru the cold was so intense
that hundreds of people died and the government declared a state of
emergency in 14 of the country's 24 provinces. In August, Chile's
agriculture minister lamented "the toughest winter we have seen in the
past 50 years," which caused losses of at least $200 million in
destroyed crops and livestock.
Latin Americans weren't the only ones
shivering.
University of Oklahoma geophysicist David
Deming, a specialist in temperature and heat flow, notes in the
Washington Times that "unexpected bitter cold swept the entire Southern
Hemisphere in 2007." Johannesburg experienced its first significant
snowfall in a quarter-century. Australia had its coldest ever June. New
Zealand's vineyards lost much of their 2007 harvest when spring
temperatures dropped to record lows.
Closer to home, 44.5 inches of snow fell in
New Hampshire last month, breaking the previous record of 43 inches, set
in 1876. And the Canadian government is forecasting the coldest winter
in 15 years.
Now all of these may be short-lived weather
anomalies, mere blips in the path of the global climatic warming that Al
Gore and a host of alarmists proclaim the deadliest threat we face. But
what if the frigid conditions that have caused so much distress in
recent months signal an impending era of global cooling?
"Stock up on fur coats and felt boots!"
advises Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural
Sciences and senior scientist at Moscow's Shirshov Institute of
Oceanography. "The latest data . . . say that earth has passed the peak
of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by
2012."
Sorokhtin dismisses the conventional global
warming theory that greenhouse gases, especially human-emitted carbon
dioxide, is causing the earth to grow hotter. Like a number of other
scientists, he points to solar activity - sunspots and solar flares,
which wax and wane over time - as having the greatest effect on climate.
"Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global
climate change," Sorokhtin writes in an essay for Novosti. "Solar
activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the
whole of humankind." In a recent paper for the Danish National Space
Center, physicists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen concur:
"The sun . . . appears to be the main forcing agent in global climate
change," they write.
Given the number of worldwide cold events,
it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In
fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006
- and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001. The record set in
1998 has not been surpassed. For nearly a decade now, there has been no
global warming. Even though atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to
accumulate - it's up about 4 percent since 1998 - the global mean
temperature has remained flat. That raises some obvious questions about
the theory that CO2 is the cause of climate change.
Yet so relentlessly has the alarmist
scenario been hyped, and so disdainfully have dissenting views been
dismissed, that millions of people assume Gore must be right when he
insists: "The debate in the scientific community is over."
But it isn't. Just last month, more than
100 scientists signed a strongly worded open letter pointing out that
climate change is a well-known natural phenomenon, and that adapting to
it is far more sensible than attempting to prevent it. Because slashing
carbon dioxide emissions means retarding economic development, they
warned, "the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase
human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it."
Climate science isn't a religion, and those
who dispute its leading theory are not heretics. Much remains to be
learned about how and why climate changes, and there is neither virtue
nor wisdom in an emotional rush to counter global warming - especially
if what's coming is a global Big Chill.
Jeff Jacoby's e-mail address is
jacoby@globe.com.
© Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
___________________________________________________________
Wal-Street Weak Week in Review
It was not a good week on wall street.
unless you were short then it was great. but if you were long last week
then you were wrong and it turned out to be a long week as well. plus it
was weak. (what?)
my website, wal-streetweak.com debuted last
week and the markets tanked. coincidence?
Stocks topped in October and have now lost
over 15% of their value.
DJIA now at 12,099.30. and tomorrow could
be rough. asia hit big. hang seng down 5.4%. Nikkei down 4%.
George W. Hoover announced a tax relief
package. stocks started up, then went down. it is a $165 billion plan.
which is 165 trillion pennies. but i bet americans save the money, take
it out of the bank. because psychology now is deflationary.
spending is down, sales are down,
construction is down, stocks are down, even gold is down. those trends
are real. Cash is king on Main Street, and is about to be King On Wal-Street.
dollar rallied recently. its recent lows should hold. a larger rally in
cash should take place. Treasuries have been in a rally and should rally
more as interest rates decline.
This stock sell-off is global.
bigcharts.com says that today's sell-off is also hitting canada and
Latin america.
link:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/global-sell-off-spreads-through-canada/story.aspx?guid=%7B43D661EE%2DE685%2D4F62%2DB5D6%2D182FFF3CBD05%7D
deflation is here. global credit cooling is
gaining steam.
For the week the DJIA was down 1.5%. the
Nasdaq was down 2.6%. the S&P 500 was down 0.8%.
Retail stocks were down 3.3% for the week.
so far this year the DJIA has lost 5% of
its value, the Nasdaq has lost 8% of its value and the S&P 500 has lost
4.6% of its value.
link:
http://www.fiendbear.com/weeklysum.html
so the B wave is over and the bear is back.
the DJIA exceeded its nominal high, but not in real terms. the S&P 500
matched its all time nominal high. but not in real terms. the nasdaq
only got to half of its all time highs, but even less in real terms.
what about gold? well gold is getting hit
hard, down $22 to $859 an ounce.
in my other threads and reports the highest
target i had was $900 for gold, then $911. gold hit $914 then sold off.
the cyclical bear for gold is here. but it will lead to great buying
opportunities.
Silver down 33 cents to $15.76 an ounce.
The dollar index is currently at 77.06. it
has held its lows.
Oil has also been retreating as of late, as
deflation rears its ugly head.
Wal-Street Traitors Update:
JP Moron was down 45 cents on friday or
over 1%. it is currently trading for $39.59 a share. it's 52 week high
is $53.25. do the math.
JP Moron chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jpm&sid=0&o_symb=jpm&x=0&y=0
Moron Stanley has another ugly chart. Moron
Stanley is trading at 45 bucks a share. that is down from its 52 week
high of $75 a share.
chart of Moron Stanley:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=ms&sid=0&o_symb=ms&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0
City of London Group also had a bad week.
it was down 2% on friday, closed at $24.45, down from its high of 55.55
bucks. and its P/E is still 34!
chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=c&sid=0&o_symb=c&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0
Merica Lynch was actually up for the day.
but it is still down nearly 50% from its highs.
link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mer&sid=0&o_symb=mer&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0
and finally i give you Bears Turns. Take
Bears Turns-- PLEASE!
Bears Turns was down 2 dollars, and has a
really bad chart. It's 52 week high was $171 a share. Bears Turns now
trading at $72.34 at after hour's trading.
chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bsc&sid=0&o_symb=bsc&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0
Due to the length of this report, Politics
will not be covered in detail at this time. but it will covered in
detail in future issues. not by the politicians. for they never cover
things in detail only platitudes. but by me.
Hillary and Johnny McVietnam are the front
runners. and Mitt Romney and Barry O'Bama are close behind.
and TRAIN WRECK '08 rolls on...
da bear
If Louis Rukeyser were alive today he'd be
rolling over his t-bills.
